Sentiment Gauge Model Score · Thu Jun 4 2026 · 09:01 ET
Model Sentiment Score
65
▼ −3 from yesterday
Greed
Extreme Fear (0–20)
Fear (20–40)
Neutral (40–60)
Greed (60–80)
Ext Greed (80–100)
Component Scores
VIX72
MOVE65
CNN F&G54
GVZ75
Credit Spd75
VVIX75
SPX70
Futures50
NASDAQ70
DOW70
RUT70
30D Sentiment Trend
30D range 54–70 · mean 64 · current 65 — 69th pct
First drop below 67 after 11 consecutive sessions in the 67–70 band. Pre-market tech pressure (NQ −1.01%) pulled futures score to neutral (50); vol structure and SMA positioning remain constructive. The May 19 low at 54 is the range anchor; the broader uptrend from that flush is intact.
Market Indices vs 50D & 200D SMA · 09:01 ET
All four indices above both SMAs — broad structural bull trend intact despite today’s pre-market pullback. NASDAQ leads at +9.2% above 50D on the persistent AI/tech bid. RUT +12.8% above 200D confirms small-cap participation. SPX at 7,553 has eased from Tuesday’s near-ATH; wide SMA extensions continue to cushion short-term drawdowns.
Rates, FX & Commodities 09:01 ET snapshot
| DXY (Dollar) | 99.21 below 100 · weak dollar tailwind |
| 5Y Yield (FVX) | 4.17% |
| 10Y Yield (TNX) | 4.45% |
| 30Y Yield (TYX) | 4.96% approaching 5% threshold |
| Gold | $4,535.50 near record highs · macro hedge demand |
| Silver | $74.74 |
| WTI Crude | $92.89 elevated but below $100 |
| BTC | $63,592.65 off from $67K yesterday |
30Y at 4.96% — still threatening the 5% threshold: Rate pressure persists despite moderating from yesterday’s 4.99%. Gold extending to $4,535 signals ongoing macro hedging demand. Crude eased to $92.89 from $96 mid-week. BTC soft at $63,593, down ~5% from yesterday, adding a risk-off note. Weak DXY (99.21) provides a modest equity tailwind.
Pre-Market Futures Gap vs prior close · 09:01 ET
ES (S&P 500)
−0.29%
7,550.00 vs 7,571.75
NQ (Nasdaq)
−1.01%
30,324.00 vs 30,633.25
YM (Dow)
+0.94%
51,278 vs 50,803
Mixed open — NQ −1.01% vs YM +0.94%: Tech and chips under pre-market pressure following overnight Asia weakness. Cyclicals and industrials receiving rotation bid as Dow diverges sharply higher. This intra-market split is consistent with the sector scan (XLK dominant RS but facing short-term pause; XLE/XLB/XLI holding well). Today is quiet on US economic data; session focus shifts to PANW earnings (tonight) and Friday’s NFP.
Credit Spread HY spread vs EMA
| HY Credit Spread | 2.71% below EMA 2.84 — benign, tightening |
| Local High / Low | 3.46% / 2.64% |
| Spread EMA | 2.84% |
Session Catalysts key events
| Yesterday (released) | ISM Services PMI 54.5 vs 53.8 est — beat, economic resilience confirmed |
| Today (after close) | PANW earnings — cybersecurity bellwether, est. $0.80/share |
| Today (pre-market) | CIEN earnings — optical networking, AI infra read-through |
| Fri Jun 5 — 8:30 AM ET | NFP — consensus 85K vs prior 115K; unemployment 4.3% |
| Fed | Quiet period ahead of mid-month FOMC; ~50% hike probability year-end |
VIX Term Structure contango · no inversions · step-up Sep–Jan
| VIX Spot | 16.47 ▼ below 200D SMA (18.51) |
| VIX 50D SMA | 19.19 |
| VIX 200D SMA | 18.51 |
| Front Month (Jun) | 16.24 (−0.23 vs spot) |
| Jul / Aug | 16.62 / 16.78 |
| Sep–Jan step-up | 17.75 → 22.43 |
| Back-month inversions | None |
Vol Complex VVIX · GVZ · MOVE · ratio
| VVIX | 89.80 50D 100.56 · 200D 102.16 — 10.7% below 50D |
| GVZ (Gold Vol) | 24.49 50D 29.69 · 200D 26.30 — 17.5% below 50D |
| MOVE (Rates Vol) | 73.58 50D 77.72 · 200D 73.39 — 5.3% below 50D |
| MOVE/VIX Ratio | 4.47 — elevated · bond stress not in equities |
VIX 14.2% below 50D SMA — equity vol at multi-month lows. Jun futures at 16.24 barely below spot (−0.23); near-term event risk fully faded. Sep steps up to 17.75, Jan reaches 22.43 — market prices building seasonal risk into H2. VVIX (−10.7% below 50D) and GVZ (−17.5% below 50D) confirm broad vol compression. MOVE holds near its 200D (73.39) while equity vol collapses: MOVE/VIX at 4.47 flags cross-asset divergence where bond markets price ongoing rate uncertainty that equity vol has not absorbed.
Sector Relative Strength ranked by composite score · scan 2026-06-04
| Rank |
Sector |
Ticker |
RS Score |
50D Distance |
Trend |
Composite |
| 1 |
Technology |
XLK |
3.649 |
+21.9% |
↑ Aligned |
0.9044 |
| 2 |
Energy |
XLE |
0.420 |
+0.8% |
↑ Aligned |
0.6502 |
| 3 |
Materials |
XLB |
0.184 |
+1.2% |
↑ Aligned |
0.6018 |
| 4 |
Industrials |
XLI |
0.131 |
+2.0% |
↑ Aligned |
0.5811 |
| 5 |
Real Estate |
XLRE |
0.097 |
+0.5% |
↑ Aligned |
0.4846 |
| 6 |
Consumer Discretionary |
XLY |
0.032 |
+0.6% |
↓ Bear |
0.4520 |
| 7 |
Financials |
XLF |
−0.017 |
−0.5% |
↓ Bear |
0.3854 |
| 8 |
Health Care |
XLV |
−0.340 |
+0.7% |
↓ Bear |
0.3588 |
| 9 |
Consumer Staples |
XLP |
−0.297 |
−1.1% |
↑ Aligned |
0.3487 |
| 10 |
Communication Services |
XLC |
−0.460 |
−2.5% |
↑ Aligned |
0.3135 |
| 11 |
Utilities |
XLU |
−0.559 |
−3.9% |
↑ Aligned |
0.2824 |
Leading: Technology (XLK, rank 1) dominates with RS 3.649 and +21.9% above 50D — AI narrative is the primary tape driver by a wide margin. Energy (XLE, rank 2) holds despite proximity to its 50D (+0.8%), supported by crude above $90 and intact 200D structure (+18.0%). Materials (XLB, rank 3) newly cracked the top-3, rising alongside industrials on cyclical rotation. Lagging: Utilities (XLU, rank 11, −3.9% below 50D) and Communication Services (XLC, rank 10, −2.5% below 50D) are the clear defensive laggards. Rotation theme: risk-on cyclical broadening — Energy/Materials/Industrials advancing alongside Tech; defensives (Utilities, Staples, Comm) have no bid. Mid-table MA misalignment: XLY (#6), XLF (#7), and XLV (#8) all show ma_aligned = false — Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Health Care carry deteriorating internal momentum despite holding above or near their 50D MAs, a bearish undercurrent below the surface price levels.
Current Events & Catalysts US & Global · Thu Jun 4 2026
NQ Futures −1.01% — Tech Selloff
ISM Services 54.5 — Beat (Jun 3)
PANW Earnings Tonight
NFP Friday — 85K Consensus
Fed Quiet Period — FOMC Mid-June
Gold $4,535 — Near Record
MOVE/VIX 4.47 — Cross-Asset Divergence
Markets · Highest Impact
Tech and Chip Stocks Slide Pre-Market as Asia Equity Markets Fall Overnight
NQ futures drop 1.01% as tech and semiconductor stocks face renewed selling following overnight Asia market weakness. ES falls 0.29% while YM diverges sharply higher (+0.94%), reflecting cyclical rotation out of growth and into industrials and energy. The intra-market split keeps the overall regime firmly mixed rather than broadly risk-off.
Fed · High Impact
Fed Enters Quiet Period; Year-End Hike Probability Holds at ~50%
The Federal Reserve enters its pre-meeting quiet period ahead of the mid-June FOMC. Fed funds futures price approximately 50% probability of at least one hike by year-end — down from 66% last week but still live. No major Treasury auctions this week; next macro catalyst is Friday’s NFP (consensus 85K vs prior 115K).
Earnings · High Impact
Palo Alto Networks Reports Tonight; CIEN AI Infrastructure Data Pre-Market
PANW reports after the close today with Wall Street expecting $0.80/share — a miss would pressure cybersecurity stocks broadly. Ciena (CIEN) reports pre-market, providing an AI optical networking read-through that could re-energize or further weigh on tech sentiment. The session’s direction may hinge on PANW guidance.
Economic Data · High Impact
ISM Services PMI 54.5 (Jun 3) Confirms Resilience; NFP Friday the Week’s Inflection
Yesterday’s ISM Services beat (54.5 vs 53.8 consensus, 53.6 prior) confirms economic resilience but failed to lift tech pre-market. The week’s macro focus now shifts to Friday’s NFP: 85K consensus would represent a meaningful step-down from 115K prior. A weak print could revive cut expectations; a beat would sustain hike risk and keep yield pressure elevated.
Week Ahead US economic calendar · high impact
| Day | Time ET | Event | Consensus / Actual | Previous |
|---|
| Wed Jun 3 |
10:00 AM ET |
ISM Services PMI |
Actual 54.5 — beat |
53.6 |
| Thu Jun 4 |
After close |
PANW Earnings |
Today Est. $0.80/share |
— |
| Fri Jun 5 |
8:30 AM ET |
Non Farm Payrolls |
Consensus 85K |
115K |
| Fri Jun 5 |
8:30 AM ET |
Unemployment Rate |
Consensus 4.3% |
4.3% |