▶ Mixed / Flat · ES +0.12% · NQ −0.70% · YM +0.92% · Dow and S&P futures firm on an Iran-attack pause and lower crude, but a semiconductor selloff led by Micron and Intel drags Nasdaq futures 0.7% lower.
Sentiment Gauge Model Score · Tue Jul 28 2026 · 08:53 ET
Model Sentiment Score
44
▼ −4 from yesterday
Neutral
CNN Fear & Greed: 41 — Fear · Price Breadth: Extreme Fear · Safe Haven: Greed
Extreme Fear (0–20)
Fear (20–40)
Neutral (40–60)
Greed (60–80)
Ext. Greed (80–100)
Component Scores
VIX50
VIX Mom20
CNN F&G41
MOVE40
GVZ65
Credit Spd35
VVIX20
SPX38
Futures50
NASDAQ38
DOW70
RUT70
30D Sentiment Trend
30D range 44–61 · mean 54 · current 44 — 0th pct
Trending down — −16 pts over the last 10 sessions. Score slips to 44 (Neutral), down 4 and off 16 points over ten sessions. The drag is broad and vol-led: VIX Momentum and VVIX both sit at 20 as VIX rate-of-change runs +12% over three days, and credit spread (35) is widening. Support is narrow-breadth strength in Dow (70) and Russell (70). Model 44 and CNN Fear-and-Greed 41 are aligned in the fear/neutral seam, so no divergence to lean on.
Market Indices vs 50D & 200D SMA · 08:53 ET
Leadership splinters ahead of Big Tech Breadth is fracturing under the surface: SPX sits 0.8% below its 50D but 5.8% above the 200D, while NASDAQ has slid 4.3% under its 50D as the chip selloff bites. Dow (+1.4% / +6.7%) and Russell (+0.5% / +10.5%) hold above both averages, so cyclicals and small caps are absorbing the tech rotation rather than the tape breaking down outright.
Rates, FX & Commodities 08:53 ET snapshot
| DXY (Dollar) | 101.56 |
| 5Y Yield (FVX) | 4.38% |
| 10Y Yield (TNX) | 4.63% |
| 30Y Yield (TYX) | 5.12% near 5% threshold |
| Gold | $4,032.40 |
| Silver | $57.64 |
| WTI Crude | $81.26 benign · well below $100 |
| BTC | $63,429.17 |
Long end sticky, dollar steady The curve stays elevated with the 30Y at 5.12%, 10Y at 4.63% and 5Y at 4.38% as the Fed decision looms Wednesday with a hold at 3.75% expected. DXY is firm at 101.6. Crude has backed off to $81.26 on the U.S.-Iran attack pause, gold holds $4,032 and silver $57.64, while BTC trades near $63.4k.
Pre-Market Futures Gap vs prior close · 08:53 ET
ES (S&P 500)
+0.12%
7,457.00 vs 7,448.25
NQ (Nasdaq)
−0.70%
27,992.00 vs 28,190.00
YM (Dow)
+0.92%
52,865.00 vs 52,382.00
Mixed tape, tech the outlier ES sits +0.12% and YM +0.92%, but NQ is -0.7% as overnight Asian weakness and a semiconductor selloff (Micron -6.5%, Intel -5%) pressure the growth complex. The split is the story: index gaps disagree, so today's direction hinges on whether the chip drag spreads or Dow/small-cap strength papers over it into the Fed and Mag-7 earnings gauntlet.
Credit Spread HY spread vs EMA
| HY Credit Spread | 2.79% above EMA 2.75 — widening |
| Local High / Low | 3.46% / 2.63% |
| Spread EMA | 2.75% |
Session Catalysts key events today
| 8:30 AM ET today | Goods Trade Balance -$101.5B vs -$100.0B consensus |
| 9:00 AM ET today | S&P Case-Shiller Home Price YoY, 1.3% expected |
| 10:00 AM ET today | CB Consumer Confidence, 92.3 expected vs 91.2 |
| Pre-market | Semiconductor selloff, Micron -6.5% and Intel -5% |
| Wed 2:00 PM ET | FOMC rate decision, hold at 3.75% expected |
VIX Term Structure contango · no inversions
| VIX Spot | 18.70 ▲ above both SMAs (50D 17.34 / 200D 18.67) |
| VIX 50D SMA | 17.34 |
| VIX 200D SMA | 18.67 |
| Front Month (Aug) | 19.14 (+0.44 vs spot) |
| Sep / Oct | 19.83 / 20.60 |
| Nov–Mar step-up | 20.91 → 22.55 |
| Back-month inversions | None |
Vol Complex VVIX · GVZ · MOVE · ratio
| VIX | 18.70 50D 17.34 · 200D 18.67 — 7.8% above 50D |
| VVIX | 100.91 50D 93.09 · 200D 101.64 — 8.4% above 50D |
| GVZ (Gold Vol) | 24.13 50D 26.19 · 200D 27.92 — 7.9% below 50D |
| MOVE (Rates Vol) | 77.21 50D 72.17 · 200D 72.06 — 7.0% above 50D |
| VIX1D (Mon close) | 13.09 implies ±0.82% 1σ day · 0.70×VIX — front contango · calm |
| MOVE/VIX Ratio | 4.13 — elevated · bond stress not in equities |
Vol grinds up, bonds louder than stocks VIX at 18.70 is 7.8% over its 50D with three-day rate-of-change up 12%, VVIX at 100.9 confirms the bid for tail hedges, and the curve stays in contango. The MOVE/VIX ratio at 4.13 is elevated: bond-market volatility is running hot relative to equity vol, a cross-asset divergence that says rate risk is not yet priced into stocks with the Fed two days out. VIX1D at 13.09 sits well below spot VIX, so no same-day event premium is embedded ahead of tomorrow's decision.
Current Events & Catalysts US & Global · Tue Jul 28 2026
FED DECISION WEDNESDAY - HOLD EXPECTED
SEMICONDUCTOR SELLOFF - MU, INTC LEAD
MAG-7 EARNINGS: MSFT, META WED / AAPL, AMZN THU
CRUDE EASES ON US-IRAN ATTACK PAUSE
MOVE/VIX 4.13 - BOND VOL DIVERGENCE
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE 10AM ET
Fed · High Impact
Fed decision Wednesday with markets pricing a hold at 3.75%
The FOMC announces at 2:00 PM ET Wednesday, consensus for no change from 3.75%, with Powell's 2:30 PM presser the real risk. The 30Y at 5.12% and a widening credit spread show the long end staying defensive into the meeting.
Earnings · High Impact
Four of the Magnificent 7 report as AI-spend scrutiny mounts
Microsoft and Meta report Wednesday, Apple and Amazon Thursday after the close. MSFT is guided to $3.88 EPS on $80.2B revenue; the group has lagged this quarter, so cloud and AI capex commentary will set the tone for the Nasdaq.
Semiconductors · High Impact
Chip stocks slide on overnight Asian weakness
Micron fell 6.5% and Intel 5% amid broad semiconductor selling that followed weakness across Asian markets overnight, dragging Nasdaq futures lower and widening the gap versus a firmer Dow and Russell 2000.
Geopolitics · Medium Impact
Crude eases as U.S. and Iran pause attacks
Oil prices tumbled to $81.26 after the U.S. paused strikes and Iran signaled it would do the same, cooling the Middle East risk premium that had lifted energy earlier in the week and lending a modest bid to broad futures.
Week Ahead US economic calendar
| Day | Time ET | Event | Consensus / Actual | Previous |
|---|
| Mon Jul 27 |
8:30 AM ET |
Durable Goods Orders MoM |
Actual 0.3% |
-4% |
| Mon Jul 27 |
8:30 AM ET |
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM |
Actual 0.6% |
1.8% |
| Mon Jul 27 |
10:30 AM ET |
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index |
Actual 1.3 |
0.0 |
| Tue Jul 28 |
8:15 AM ET |
ADP Employment Change Weekly |
Today Actual 15.0K |
16.25K |
| Tue Jul 28 |
8:30 AM ET |
Goods Trade Balance Adv |
Today Actual $-101.5B |
$-105.89B |
| Tue Jul 28 |
8:30 AM ET |
Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv |
Today Actual -0.2% |
0.2% |
| Tue Jul 28 |
8:30 AM ET |
Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv |
Today Actual 0.3% |
0.3% |
| Tue Jul 28 |
9:00 AM ET |
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY |
Today 1.3% |
1.1% |
| Tue Jul 28 |
10:00 AM ET |
CB Consumer Confidence |
Today 92.3 |
91.2 |
| Tue Jul 28 |
4:30 PM ET |
API Crude Oil Stock Change |
Today -2.50M |
2.603M |
| Wed Jul 29 |
7:00 AM ET |
MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate |
— |
6.69% |
| Wed Jul 29 |
10:30 AM ET |
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change |
-2.50M |
2.011M |
| Wed Jul 29 |
10:30 AM ET |
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change |
-1.71M |
0.765M |
| Wed Jul 29 |
2:00 PM ET |
Fed Interest Rate Decision |
3.75% |
3.75% |
| Wed Jul 29 |
2:30 PM ET |
Fed Press Conference |
— |
— |
| Thu Jul 30 |
8:30 AM ET |
Core PCE Price Index MoM |
0.2% |
0.3% |
| Thu Jul 30 |
8:30 AM ET |
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv |
2.1% |
2.1% |
| Thu Jul 30 |
8:30 AM ET |
Personal Income MoM |
0.3% |
0.7% |
| Thu Jul 30 |
8:30 AM ET |
Personal Spending MoM |
0.3% |
0.7% |
| Thu Jul 30 |
8:30 AM ET |
GDP Price Index QoQ Adv |
3.6% |
3.6% |
| Thu Jul 30 |
8:30 AM ET |
Initial Jobless Claims |
200K |
187K |
| Thu Jul 30 |
8:30 AM ET |
PCE Price Index MoM |
-0.1% |
0.4% |
| Thu Jul 30 |
8:30 AM ET |
PCE Price Index YoY |
3.7% |
4.1% |
| Fri Jul 31 |
8:30 AM ET |
Employment Cost - Benefits QoQ |
— |
1.2% |
| Fri Jul 31 |
8:30 AM ET |
Employment Cost - Wages QoQ |
— |
0.8% |
| Fri Jul 31 |
8:30 AM ET |
Employment Cost Index QoQ |
0.8% |
0.9% |
| Fri Jul 31 |
9:45 AM ET |
Chicago PMI |
56 |
56.7 |
| Fri Jul 31 |
10:00 AM ET |
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final |
54.0 |
49.5 |