Education

Sector ETF Dashboard Guide

How to read the sector scan, interpret the signals, and identify which sectors to carry into the Industry ETF Dashboard for deeper analysis.

This dashboard answers one question: where is institutional money flowing right now?

Use it as the second step in the pre-market sequence — after the Market Sentiment Dashboard tells you the broad regime, the Sector ETF Dashboard tells you which corners of the market are showing the most relative strength. That output feeds directly into the Industry ETF Dashboard, which drills into the specific industries driving each sector and generates the stock screener recipes.

Two badges at the top right summarize the day in a single glance before you read a single row of the scan table.

1
Regime: Risk-On Regime: Neutral Regime: Risk-Off

The overall market regime derived from the day's sector composite scores. Risk-On means growth and cyclical sectors are leading — Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials. Risk-Off means defensive sectors are leading — Utilities, Consumer Staples, Health Care. Neutral means no clear directional tilt; the market is rotating without conviction.

2
Top Sector: XLK — Score 0.90

The highest-ranked sector by composite score for the day. This is where the screener should be focused first. The score ranges from 0.0 to 1.0 — a score above 0.75 indicates strong, broad-based leadership in that sector. A score below 0.50 at the top of the table means no sector has a meaningful edge; treat the rankings with lower conviction.

All 11 SPDR sector ETFs ranked from strongest to weakest by composite score. Each row is a sector. Read left to right — the columns move from backward-looking momentum (RS scores) to current positioning (MA, distance from SMAs) to forward-looking signals (Expected Return, Prob Gain, Timing, Flow).

Summary pills — read these before the table

Above the table, four pills give you the aggregate picture: how many sectors are MA-aligned vs. misaligned, the average probability of gain across all sectors, and the top sector ticker. If 8 or more sectors are MA-aligned, the broad market has structural support. If 5 or fewer are aligned, rotation is fragmented and sector-specific conviction should be lower.

RS (63D) Relative strength vs. SPY over the trailing 63 trading days (~3 months). A positive reading means the sector has outperformed SPY over that window. This is the primary longer-term momentum signal — sectors with sustained positive RS are in structural leadership.
RS (20D) Relative strength vs. SPY over the trailing 20 days (~1 month). Comparing 63D and 20D RS reveals whether momentum is accelerating or decelerating. A sector with strong 63D RS but weak 20D RS is fading — leadership is stalling. A sector with improving 20D RS against weak 63D RS may be emerging.
50D Dist% How far the ETF's price is above or below its 50-day moving average, as a percentage. Positive means above (uptrend); negative means below (downtrend). Larger positive values indicate the sector is extended — momentum is strong but entry risk is higher. Values near 0% suggest a potential pullback entry point near the moving average.
200D Dist% Distance from the 200-day moving average. This is the long-term trend indicator. A sector trading well above its 200D is in a confirmed long-term uptrend. A sector below its 200D is in a structural downtrend — avoid as a primary screener focus regardless of short-term RS.
52W High% How far below the 52-week high the ETF is currently trading. A value near 0% means the sector is at or near its annual high — maximum strength. A large negative reading means significant drawdown from the high — useful context for understanding whether the sector is recovering or still distributing.
MA (dot) Moving average alignment — a single green or red dot. Green: the 50D SMA is above the 200D SMA (golden cross alignment — long-term uptrend structure). Red: the 50D is below the 200D (death cross — structural downtrend). MA-aligned sectors have the trend behind them; MA-misaligned sectors are fighting the structure.
Exp Ret% Model-estimated expected return over the next 20 trading days, expressed as a percentage. This is a forward-looking signal — it incorporates momentum, positioning, and volatility. Use it as a relative ranking tool, not a price target. A higher expected return means the model sees more favorable conditions for that sector going forward.
Prob Gain Estimated probability that the sector ETF will be higher 20 days from now, shown as a percentage with a visual bar. Above 65% is a favorable reading. Below 50% signals the model sees more downside risk than upside potential. This is the single most useful forward signal in the table for deciding which sectors deserve screener focus.
Composite The overall ranking score from 0.0 to 1.0 that combines RS, positioning, and probability signals into a single number. This is what the rows are ranked by. Treat the top 3 ranks as primary screener sectors, ranks 4–7 as secondary candidates, and ranks 8–11 as sectors to avoid or watch for bottom rotation.
Timing Entry timing signal based on current price relative to its moving averages and recent momentum. See the Timing Chips section below for a full explanation of each label.
Vol Ratio Today's volume relative to the 10-day average. A ratio above 1.0× means above-average volume — institutional participation is elevated, and moves are more likely to have conviction behind them. Below 0.75× is thin — treat signals with lower confidence.
Flow (CMF + OBV) Two institutional flow signals combined in one column. The chip shows Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)Inflow (CMF > +0.10) means net accumulation, Outflow (CMF < −0.10) means net distribution, Neutral means no meaningful directional pressure. The arrow to the right shows OBV trend Rising means cumulative volume is building on up-days (sustained accumulation); Falling means cumulative volume is declining (structural distribution). CMF reflects recent session pressure; OBV reveals whether institutional positioning has structural support behind it. When they diverge — Inflow ▼ or Outflow ▲ — treat the signal with caution. See the Signal Pattern Guide for the full CMF + OBV combination matrix.

The Timing chip is the dashboard's most actionable column. A high composite score tells you which sector is leading — the Timing chip tells you whether right now is a good moment to act on it.

Good Entry

Price is near but above key moving averages — not extended, not broken. The trend is intact and there is room to run. This is the highest-conviction entry signal. A Good Entry timing in a top-3 ranked sector with Inflow is the clearest setup on the dashboard.

Extended

Price has moved significantly above its moving averages — momentum is strong but entry risk is elevated. The sector is leading but stretched. Preferred approach: wait for a pullback toward the 50D SMA before entering individual names from this sector. Chasing an extended sector increases drawdown risk on a reversal.

Pullback Setup

Price has retraced but the longer-term trend structure remains intact. The sector is setting up a potential re-entry after a controlled correction. Combine with the RS score — if 63D RS is still positive, the pullback is likely to attract buyers at the moving average. This is the "buy the dip" signal.

Fading

Momentum is deteriorating — recent RS is weakening and the sector is losing its relative edge. A Fading sector in the top half of the rankings may be rotating out of leadership. Avoid new entries; if already positioned, monitor for exit signals. A Fading read in the bottom half of the table confirms avoidance.

Neutral

No meaningful timing signal. The sector is in a holding pattern — neither extended nor pulling back, neither accelerating nor fading. Treat as a no-action signal unless another column (Flow, Prob Gain) provides a directional nudge.

Below the main table, the top-ranked sector gets its own deep-dive card. This is the sector you'll focus the your stock screener on first — the snapshot tells you whether its current internals support acting on it today.

1
RSI (14)

Standard 14-period RSI. Above 70 is overbought — extension risk is high. Below 30 is oversold — potential reversal zone. The ideal entry zone for a trending sector is 50–65: enough momentum to confirm trend, not so extreme that the sector is due a correction.

2
MACD Histogram

Positive and growing means momentum is accelerating bullishly. Positive but shrinking means momentum is peaking. Negative and deepening means bearish acceleration. Use this alongside the Timing chip — an Extended sector with a shrinking MACD histogram is a stronger fade signal than either alone.

3
BB %B

Bollinger Band %B — where price sits within the bands. Above 0.80 is near the upper band (extended). Below 0.20 is near the lower band (potential reversal). Combined with RSI, a %B above 0.90 alongside RSI above 70 is a strong signal to wait for a pullback before entering.

4
Volume Ratio

Same as the Vol Ratio column in the main table but shown here with a sub-label context. Below-average volume on a high-RS sector means the move lacks institutional backing — treat any near-term signal as lower conviction.

5
Money Flow (CMF)

Chaikin Money Flow — positive (accumulation) or negative (distribution). The OBV (On Balance Volume) trend is shown alongside it. Both rising together is the strongest accumulation confirmation. CMF positive with OBV flat means only recent-session inflow, not sustained institutional buying.

6
GBM 20D Range

The model's estimated 5th–95th percentile price range for the sector ETF over the next 20 trading days. This is the expected trading envelope — not a prediction, but a probability range. Use it to sanity-check whether the current price has room to run within the expected distribution.

Alert box. Below the snapshot metrics, a color-coded alert summarizes the key risk or opportunity in plain language. It distills all six metrics into a single actionable sentence. An amber alert (e.g., "RSI 79 — extended, wait for a pullback") overrides an otherwise strong ranking and should carry forward as context when you open the Industry ETF Dashboard.

Two charts sit below the snapshot card. They are not needed every day — use them when the table rankings are compressed (sectors clustered near similar composite scores) or when you want to understand the rotation story behind the current rankings.

GBM Price Range Chart

A horizontal bar chart showing the 5th–95th percentile expected price range for each sector ETF over the next 20 days. The red vertical line marks the current price. When the current price sits near the upper bound of its range, the ETF has less expected upside and more downside cushion — a natural extension warning. When the current price is near the lower bound, there is more upside in the model's distribution. Use this to compare extension risk across sectors at a glance.

Sector Performance Chart

A normalized line chart showing the percentage return of each sector ETF over the selected window (15D, 30D, or 60D), anchored to zero at the start. This is the visual rotation map — which sectors led, which lagged, and how recently the leadership shifted. Toggle between the 15D, 30D, and 60D windows: 15D reveals the most recent momentum; 60D shows the sustained leaders that match the RS (63D) column. Look for divergences between the windows — a sector leading on 60D but flattening on 15D is the chart version of a Fading timing signal.

A complete pre-market sector read takes about three minutes. Work through the dashboard in this order:

1

Check the regime badge and top sector — two seconds, one sentence: "risk-on, led by XLK" or "neutral, no clear leader."

2

Scan the table for the top 3 sectors by composite score. Check their MA alignment dots, Timing chips, and Flow column. Note which have all three favorable — these are the sectors to carry forward.

3

Open the top sector snapshot. If the alert box warns of extension (RSI overbought, BB %B near 1.0), downgrade your conviction and carry the second-ranked sector forward instead.

Open the Industry ETF Dashboard — it shows which specific industry within the leading sectors is driving the move, and generates the stock screener recipes at industry precision.