Each column on the ETF dashboards answers a different question. Timing (driven by RSI, MACD, and momentum trend) tells you where price action stands in its cycle. Flow (CMF + OBV) tells you what institutional money is doing — the CMF chip shows recent session-level buying or selling pressure, and the OBV arrow (▲▼) shows whether that pressure has structural volume support behind it.
Read in isolation, each column has limits. A Good Entry Timing signal looks bullish — but if institutions are simultaneously selling, the momentum is running on retail buying alone and is more fragile than it appears. A Fading Timing signal looks bearish — but if institutions are still accumulating, the price is consolidating rather than reversing.
The combination is the signal. The matrix below maps every Timing × Flow pairing to a specific read and action. Both the Sector ETF Dashboard and the Industry ETF Dashboard use identical Timing and Flow logic, so this guide applies to both.
Timing column — 5 states
Flow (CMF + OBV) column
The Flow column shows two signals side by side. The chip is Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) — recent session buying/selling pressure. The arrow to its right is On Balance Volume (OBV) trend — whether cumulative institutional volume is building or unwinding.
CMF chip — 3 states
OBV arrow — 2 states
How it appears on the dashboard
| Timing | Inflow CMF > +0.10 |
Neutral Flow CMF ±0.10 |
Outflow CMF < −0.10 |
|---|---|---|---|
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Good Entry
RSI 40–65 MACD ≥ 0 |
Best Setup
Momentum confirmed by institutional accumulation. The highest-conviction entry on the dashboard. Full-size position.
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Valid, Lower Conviction
Momentum is real but running on price action alone — no institutional confirmation yet. Enter with moderate size; watch for flow to turn positive.
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Divergence Warning
Price momentum positive but institutions selling into it. Reduce position size. Watch for Timing to deteriorate — this setup resolves bearishly more often than it looks.
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Extended
RSI > 70 Overbought |
Hold, Don't Add
Overbought but institutions still supporting it. Don't open new positions. Don't exit existing ones. Let it breathe — institutional inflow can sustain an extended run longer than expected.
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Trim
Overbought with no institutional backing. Reduce exposure and tighten stops. The move has run on momentum alone and is vulnerable to a fast reversal.
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Exit Into Strength
Classic topping signal. Overbought price with institutions distributing. Exit before the momentum rolls over — you still have price strength to sell into.
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Pullback Setup
RSI < 38 Oversold |
Best Reversal Setup
Oversold price with institutions accumulating — the highest-conviction mean reversion candidate. Watch for Timing to shift to Good Entry before committing full size.
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Watch, Not Yet
Oversold but no institutional support yet. Don't act — wait for Flow to turn to Inflow before entering. Oversold can get more oversold without a buying catalyst.
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Downtrend In Force
Oversold with institutions still selling. Avoid — there is no bottom yet. Catching this knife before flow turns positive has poor odds.
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Fading
MACD < 0 or momentum declining |
Consolidation / Accumulation
Institutions still buying while price momentum digests. This is not a reversal — it's a pause. Hold existing positions. Do not add until Timing returns to Good Entry. The most commonly misread combination on the dashboard.
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Dead Money
Momentum dying with no institutional support. No reason to hold or enter. Reduce and redeploy into a sector with a better setup.
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Exit
Breakdown in progress. Momentum fading and institutions distributing — both forces pointing the same direction. Exit. Do not wait for confirmation.
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| Neutral No clear signal |
Early Watch
Institutions building a position before momentum has shown up in price. Watch for Timing to flip to Good Entry — that confirmation is the entry signal, not the flow alone.
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No Signal
No directional information from either column. Skip and focus on sectors with clearer setups.
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Quiet Distribution
No price momentum but institutions are quietly selling. Avoid — this is how a topping process starts before the price chart shows it.
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The most commonly misread pattern on the dashboard. Price momentum is decelerating — RSI rolling over, MACD histogram shrinking — which looks bearish in isolation. But institutional money flow is still positive and rising, meaning smart money is continuing to buy even as the price digests its prior move.
This is a consolidation, not a reversal. If institutions were distributing into weakening momentum, CMF would be falling — not rising. The price action is pausing while the underlying accumulation continues. Stocks in the industry will show tight, sideways price action on volume that remains positive on up days.
Both signals aligned bullish — price momentum in the optimal entry zone and institutions actively accumulating. This is the highest-conviction setup on the dashboard. When both the Sector ETF Dashboard and Industry ETF Dashboard show this combination in the same sector/industry, the signal extends to individual stocks through the screener.
Oversold price with institutional accumulation — the classic mean reversion setup. Institutions are buying while retail is selling the weakness, which is how bottoms are built. The risk here is timing: the ETF can remain oversold while institutions accumulate over several sessions before price recovers.
Overbought price with institutions distributing. This is the most reliable exit signal on the dashboard. Price is extended and the smart money is selling into the remaining retail momentum. The combination rarely resolves bullishly.
Both signals aligned bearish — momentum deteriorating and institutions distributing. Unlike the Topping Signal, the price has already started to move lower. This is an active breakdown, not a warning of one.
The most dangerous-looking bullish setup on the dashboard. Timing looks clean — RSI in the ideal range, MACD positive — but institutions are selling. This is how distribution tops form: price holds up while smart money exits into retail buying pressure, until the buying dries up and the price drops without warning.
The Flow column shows two signals: CMF (the chip) and OBV trend (the arrow ▲▼ to its right). They measure different things and frequently diverge — which is where the most actionable information lives.
CMF — Chaikin Money Flow
20-period bounded indicator (−1 to +1). Measures the pressure of recent buying vs. selling based on where price closes within the high-low range, weighted by volume. Resets each period — reflects current session-by-session flow, not cumulative position.
OBV — On Balance Volume
Cumulative volume indicator. Volume is added on up-days and subtracted on down-days. The trend (Rising ▲ or Falling ▼ vs. its 10-period MA) reveals whether sustained institutional positioning is building or unwinding — independent of recent price closes.
| CMF | OBV Rising ▲ | OBV Falling ▼ |
|---|---|---|
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Inflow
CMF > +0.10
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Sustained Accumulation
Both short-term pressure and long-term volume trend pointing the same direction. The strongest institutional conviction signal on the dashboard. Inflow ▲ is the confirmation you want before committing full size.
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Fragile Inflow
Recent session buying is positive but the cumulative volume trend is declining — institutions may be selling into the recent strength. Treat the Inflow chip with skepticism. Reduce position size relative to a confirmed Inflow ▲ setup.
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Neutral
CMF ±0.10
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Quiet Accumulation
CMF hasn't crossed the inflow threshold yet, but volume is building on up-days at the cumulative level. Institutions are positioning before the price and CMF confirm it. This often precedes a Timing flip to Good Entry — watch closely.
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Quiet Distribution
No obvious selling pressure in CMF — price is holding flat — but cumulative volume is declining. This is how distribution tops build before the price chart shows anything. Avoid new positions.
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Outflow
CMF < −0.10
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Possible False Outflow
Recent session selling is elevated, but cumulative volume is still rising — longer-term institutional positioning is intact. May be short-term profit-taking into a healthy trend rather than true distribution. Watch for CMF to recover before acting.
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Confirmed Distribution
Both signals aligned bearish. Recent selling pressure and a declining cumulative volume trend — institutions are exiting at both the session and structural level. Exit. This is the Breakdown pattern's flow signature.
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How to read the Flow column on the dashboard
The Flow chip shows CMF value and direction (Inflow +0.22). The arrow immediately to its right shows OBV trend (▲ Rising or ▼ Falling). Read them together — the chip tells you what's happening now, the arrow tells you whether the trend has structural support behind it.
The ETF pattern tells you the sector or industry context. Individual stocks within that industry will broadly reflect the same Timing and Flow dynamics as the ETF — but with more variance. Use the ETF pattern to set the filter, then look for individual stock confirmation within the screener results.
Confirmed Breakout or Consolidation/Accumulation
Run the full screener recipe. Look for stocks with positive CMF (inflow), above their 50D MA, and RS > 1.0 vs SPY. These are the names most likely to carry the ETF's momentum.
Reversal Base (Pullback Setup + Inflow)
Tighten screener criteria — only stocks holding above their 200D MA and showing volume expansion on up days. The ETF is building a base; individual stocks that have already stabilized are the better candidates.
Topping Signal, Breakdown, or Distribution Into Strength
Skip the screener for this sector entirely, regardless of what the sector composite score shows. ETF flow leads individual stocks — if institutions are distributing the ETF, they are distributing the underlying names too.